It started with a comment about an upcoming benefit party, August 2nd, for free103 and Smackmellon studios that I'm involved in, and will not get paid for (less car service). There has been an increase in benefit parties for art groups in the last few years. My friend says it began with the Madagascar Fundraiser to send people to Berlin in 2002, but I think it began earlier. At any rate, this increase in benefit parties coincides with the increase in unemployment, in NYC and in the United States as a whole. It's not an obvious leap to assume that the 'technology bubble' was a significant factor. Many of us with Dot Com or related jobs had plenty of extra cash to pour into our creative interests. Supporting creative interests is up to the individual in this country, especially if those interests are at all left of mainstream. (The city of Berlin donates more money to art related projects than the entire United States Government. Though US private donations are larger than most European Countries, they support mostly mainstream, commercially viable art and the growing economic system within museum culture).

So we lose our jobs and throw benefit parties to keep our art groups going. The problem is, as dot-commers lose jobs and infiltrate the service industry (bars, restaurants, record stores - ahem) - and focus on their own art projects it squeezes the opportunity for those already working in service to support their art. Consequently more people have work to show and music to make than organizations, bars, and parties can financially support. (It was bad before, now it's worse). Consider all this in light of what economists are calling a "real-estate bubble." The term bubble implies an inflated boom. It means that people are making money but there isn't necessarily any substance to the pricing. On the west coast, Boston, and in Austin, technology centers, prices are in fact falling and the bubble is losing air, thankfully gradually. In New York, however, where technology played a relatively small role compared to publishing, fashion, art, and most importantly, banking, the real-estate prices continue to rise, even though vacancies are increasing 1-2% per quarter. This is the bubble. Prices rise, but people have fewer jobs, less money, and vacancies increase... where is the 'buffer money' coming from? (reduced interest rates, i get to it later)

What this means to us in New York... Higher rent means even fewer venues. [and this a plug. please support any local venues you can that provide space and pay local artists - as middle and higher income people lose their jobs and stop going out to afford their mortgages, it will be left to US to keep US employed] Additionally we have more artists than venues (artists increase and venues decrease, simultaneously), and those artists also have less collective money. There are also more organizations seeking funds than an underground community can financially support.

It's not looking good folks.

New York, as of may, had an unemployment rate of 6.1%, ranking it tied for 9th place. http://www.klever.org/economy/ (data from the department of labor statistics website). Overdue payments on loans (30-90 days late) to commercial banks are higher now than in 1992 (it was lowest for the 10 year period in 95/96) but overdue loans to Savings Banks are relatively stable. (This data from the FDIC bank data pages http://www.fdic.gov/). You would think this would reduce profits for banks, but both Citibank (the largest US bank) and JP Morgan Chase both showed tremendous profits last quarter (Chase was up 78%). Banks are profitable because the interest rates lowered 11 times since 2001 and Greenspan announced today that he could still lower it again, even though it's already at 1%. "The Federal Reserve is prepared to hold interest rates low "for as long as needed" to stimulate further growth, the chairman, Alan Greenspan, said today, even as he presented an unexpectedly upbeat economic forecast to a House committee. Leaving open the possibility of further rate cuts, Mr. Greenspan discounted speculation that the Fed could not lower its funds rate much lower than its current 1 percent — already the lowest rate in 45 years." (New York Times, July 15). Because the Interest rates are low, people are refinancing their loans, which give them lower monthly payments allowing them to pay on time, and take out more loans, increasing bank profits.

For a while I was thinking the US economy would crash within the next ten years. Upon doing my research I'm not so sure of that anymore. Even though people have less money, the banks are very strong, and the real questions, to which there are a number of answers, is will the economy recover before interest rates drop to zero? One theory is that the banks will still survive b/c they've all widened their service offerings and business units, so a blow to one unit can be absorbed by others. I don't know. I'm not an economist yet.

What I do know, going back to our underground arts community is suffering. we need to think about how much we can realistically support. While we could passively let the market rule, and squish organizations that individuals don't support (org x fails b/c no one attends their benefit parties), we could also proactively select what we want to stay. But that's pretty damn bureaucratic and I"m a Capricorn who likes to organize and organize, so in this suggestion, perhaps I should not be trusted. still, it's an interesting idea that we poll our community and vote, and those of use with organizations that aren't voted "to keep" can stop trying to compete and focus their energy on sustaining the groups the collective wants. yeah yeah yeah, don't think I"m unaware of how ridiculous this is for many reasons. *yet I still love the idea

To the first point... this bit about not paying artists has got to stop, because its' the artists that are paying the door at events they aren't participating at. Not entirely, but more and more. we need a better, self-sustaining model that depends less on patrons and people with disposable income, and more on ourselves. we need to tighten the ships, reduce the number of ships, and work on our art in less expensive ways. we also need rent prices to go down and the real-estate bubble to burst (we just need to stick it out a while longer). if we are self-sustaining before the bubble bursts we will be able to take care of each other, whereas those that depend on others for entertainment and culture will be screwed, and most likely leave NYC, returning it to the chaotic landscape of the 80's (which I doubt many of *us* would be too threatened by, and then even more will leave!!! bye bye Disney.). It's a tough predicament, probably not best suited for the plain and simple analysis I"m attempting...

love and autonomy,
./kV



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